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Far Cough 5:35 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

OK, for clarity, what exactly ARE you saying in this regard?

It seems to me and a lot of others on here, you were advocating using Cullen and Burke in our first team instead of loaning them out?

Alex V 5:27 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

No, it's just what the childish mentality on here would like to characterise as my opinion, so that they can dismiss it as ludicrous. (Which that claim definitely would be).

Let me be clear - I don't think top clubs should just throw in raw talent. I haven't said that and I don't think it. I'm discussing the merits of loans. Let's raise the debate a little beyond mud-slinging at made up opinions I didn't state and don't hold.

SurfaceAgentX2Zero 5:23 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Alex V 5:20 Tue Aug 8

'None of which is a claim that top clubs should just throw in raw talent.'

Yes it is.

If that's not impression you seek to give with pretty much every single post you make then you should work on your communication skills, because that's the impression you give.

Jaan Kenbrovin 5:23 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

So if you don't believe in the loan system, how do you expect clubs youth to develop and get first team football if it isn't just throwing them in the deep end?

Alex V 5:20 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Jaan Kenbrovin 5:16 Tue Aug 8

None of which is a claim that top clubs should just throw in raw talent. As I said, it seems to me that most top coaches agree that the system is entirely crocked.

Jaan Kenbrovin 5:16 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Alex V 5:07 Tue Aug 8

"I will continue to point out that this system is junk science and simply does not work. It's a really bad system for developing premiership players."

"What is the scientific approach to deciding if, say, Cullen or Noble is the better player to select right now? What is the criteria? If it's always just based on reputation or trust or seniority then Noble always wins, but none of those criteria are scientifically measured things - they are gut feelings."

"I say again, the decision making may be entirely faulty and entirely based on false assumptions based on long-outdated received wisdom, and nobody at the club would ever know and nobody ever questions it. On some level that alone is evidence the whole system is completely absurd."

Alex V 5:07 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

>>> You seem to be under the impression the entire footballing world is completely wrong and top clubs should just throw in raw youth talent.

Not at all. Where have I said that?

Alex V 4:51 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

>>> have you had any thoughts on why it is you can see the great fallacy of the loan systems, yet so many top managers and coaches can't?

Again this is a common comeback in these discussions. But it's simply not true - as far as I can tell all top coaches see the major flaws in the system. The flaws after all are completely self-evident, are they not?

Eggbert Nobacon 4:18 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Alx

have you had any thoughts on why it is you can see the great fallacy of the loan systems, yet so many top managers and coaches can't?

Jaan Kenbrovin 3:58 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Alex V 2:59 Tue Aug 8

Burke already developed and proved himself at league 1 level which is why he has been able to earn a place in two championship squads since.

Whether you like it or not, the football world minimises risk by playing more proven players of that level.

Jordan Pickford and Michael Keane have both earned 30m pound moves to Everton after having gained experience and proven themselves during several loan moves.

You seem to be under the impression the entire footballing world is completely wrong and top clubs should just throw in raw youth talent. Would you think the same of any other profession though, such as doctors and surgeons?

Bernie 3:40 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

and it's

PREMIER LEAGUE

Bernie 3:38 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Alex,

You need to calm down and understand that some loans are great and some are shit.

Alex V 3:33 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

>>> There is a big jump from youth level to top professional level, which is why the overwhelming majority of players have to play their way up through the leagues, via loans or transfers.

That is basically the 'they're not good enough' argument, which at least has a certain logic to it. The problem of course is the amount of complete mistakes we've seen on evaluations of players, like Spurs pretty clearly underrating first Bale then Kane only to find out they could develop into world-class players. Or us trying to sell Collison then finding out he was a first-team player. The trouble with any assessment of 'they're not good enough' is that it depends on the terms its being framed in and who's giving the answer and how definitive that is. And what the needs of the team/squad are and what the risk/reward of decisions is. It's a very complicated concept to be so definitive about, basically.

If a player like Burke is deemed 'not good enough' which seems likely to be the case right now, then sending him out on loan to play out his contract probably does make some financial sense. So the issue there would be why the club continually makes noises about how loans are actually the route to the first team (basically bollocks imo). And how did a player who isn't good enough get to this stage - was it a problem with earlier assessments, is the coaching not good enough etc? Presumably at some point each player who is given a senior contract is considered to have the potential to be good enough - if that doesn't materialise something has gone wrong somewhere.

The problem from my point of view is that I saw Burke play in the premiership in 2015 and over five games he looked to be 'good enough'. Lukaku gave him the run around from memory, but he has done that to a lot of senior defenders too. So what has happened to Burke since then makes simply no sense to me. It makes more sense that the decision making is just defective when it comes to youth players.

I also doubt whether the gap between youth level and basic premiership level is actually as high as advertised. There is absolutely no science to it whatsoever - it is entirely based on a belief system (what does 'good enough' really mean?). And in the culture of fear among managers fearing for their jobs the myth is perpetuated. This idea that players need to work up to the higher level as if football ability is like climbing a ladder is part of that myth.

What is the scientific approach to deciding if, say, Cullen or Noble is the better player to select right now? What is the criteria? If it's always just based on reputation or trust or seniority then Noble always wins, but none of those criteria are scientifically measured things - they are gut feelings. These gut feelings seem to dominate 99% of football decisions from managers. How to get more scientific about it? You could do a passing drill in training and maybe Noble wins - what does that mean? Noble may be a slightly better passer but every player is such a mix of attributes and decision making that one statistic like that doesn't measure anything. Of course if they played a bunch of games you could look at their contribution to a team performance in detail, but Cullen hasn't played the games to compare. My gut feeling, again, is that Cullen is probably very close to Noble in lots of statistically measurable ways, and actually in terms of the future of the club it would actually be much more sensible to promote Cullen over Noble. I may be entirely wrong, but what if I'm right - the way decisions are made never allows for the right answer to be made unless the answer is the senior player - surely that is a terrible system then?

I say again, the decision making may be entirely faulty and entirely based on false assumptions based on long-outdated received wisdom, and nobody at the club would ever know and nobody ever questions it. On some level that alone is evidence the whole system is completely absurd.

On The Ball 3:24 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

I'm sure that most players will tell you that they learn more in the intensity of actual matches than in the comfort of training.

Lee Trundle 3:09 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Toni Martinez
Andreas Christensen
Aaron Mooy
Andreas Pereira
Kyle Bartley
Danny Ward

All were out on loan last season, and are all likely to feature for their parent clubs at some point this season.

I'm guessing you'll find a problem with one or two of those, so it's wishful thinking asking for your best surprised face V.

Alex V 2:59 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

>>> I think that is a wild assumption. Just because Burke is out on loan and Rice isn't, doesn't make Rice ahead of him in the pecking order.

It's an opinion. If you think different that's your own 'wild assumption'. I don't base it on loan status - I base it on selection in the friendlies, and the rumours coming out of the club. It actually doesn't matter too much who is right or wrong.

>>> Burke's too good to be retained as a fringe squad member and is best served getting regular first team football to develop further.

That is a wild assumption. Will he develop at Bolton? Will he not develop under the coaching at our club? You're assuming the answer based on two different futures one of which we will never get to assess. More importantly, even if he does 'develop' at Bolton, will it make any difference to West Ham in the future? I doubt it. Whereas if he made a difference to West Ham in the squad this season it definitely would matter directly to us.

A small handful of these loans each season seem to bear fruit for the bigger clubs, and the hundreds that don't seem to get conveniently ignored. I will continue to point out that this system is junk science and simply does not work. It's a really bad system for developing premiership players.

Jaan Kenbrovin 2:56 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

I'd guess far less than the amount of players that go straight from youth to the first team squad.

There is a big jump from youth level to top professional level, which is why the overwhelming majority of players have to play their way up through the leagues, via loans or transfers.

Rossal 2:54 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Alex V...

How is contributing to a squad going to help him. He would have gone form playing week in week out for the last 18 months or so and improving to sitting on the bench. I dont see how his value would increase by doing that, and how it wouldnt more by going to make a name for himself in the championship. How would the club have any idea of how good he can be by him sitting on the bench as opposed to watching him play first team football at the highest level he has played at to date? Arent the young players watching him take that route...going out on loan and developing is the route to a first team nowadays for most youngsters

Have you watched Bolton alot lately then? One thing is certain and that is playing week in week out for a team at the lower end of the championship will make him a better defender than making up the numbers in drills designed to work the first choice defenders back at Rush Green.

Alex V 2:50 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

How many players who were on loan in the lower leagues last season will play a part for their parent club in the Premiership this season? If there's even a handful I'll be surprised.

Jaan Kenbrovin 2:49 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Alex V 12:44 Tue Aug 8

I think that is a wild assumption. Just because Burke is out on loan and Rice isn't, doesn't make Rice ahead of him in the pecking order. I can't see Rice gaining a loan at a better club.

Burke's too good to be retained as a fringe squad member and is best served getting regular first team football to develop further. Rice is young enough to be still learning at youth level, especially as we got promoted at that level, so being a possible fringe member is no problem.

Alex V 2:33 Tue Aug 8
Re: Bolton v Leeds United (Cullen & Burke)

Side of Ham 2:25 Tue Aug 8

Agreed youths actively want to choose the loan route. For their careers it's a no-brainer - they want a chance to prove they can pursue a career somewhere if not at the bigger club. We support this mentality with all this 'you do your years on loan to earn your chance' rubbish. And as proven in all the loan threads that come up on here, the easy assumption is always that the loan system is a good thing.

But at the end of the day should we just do what young players want? Or what gives us the best chance of having a better team in the future? Surely the latter. What a young player wants is irrelevant - the job of the club is to turn them into first team players, not to appease their whims.

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